Everyone in the media has wanted their piece of the pie with Zion this year. Each highlight reel dunk and spectacular block has only increased the media fervor and number of followers. As Duke looks to face Syracuse, and presumably Virginia Tech as well, without Zion, let's consider what Duke looks like without Zion, and what it must do against Syracuse to leave the Carrier Dome with a W.
DUKE WITHOUT ZION
Duke without Zion is not a cart without a horse. But it might be a sports car without its turbo. Or maybe a chef without her secret sauce. Here are the main points to consider:
MAIN POINTS - A Five Spot
1. Without Zion, Duke can’t play “position-less basketball” since all bench players have limitations. Not only is Zion our best two-way player (offense and defense), but he also allows the greatest roster flexibility in terms of building around him. He wreaks havoc wherever he is on the floor. We don't have another player like that, certainly not from the bench.
2. We can replace most of Zion's production, but not his efficiency. We have other scorers. RJ and Cam can both score 25+ points per game, but they require 25-35% more shot attempts to do so. Zion would regularly put up 25 points in a game on 12-15 shooting from the floor. Obviously, RJ and Cam shoot more from the outside, which explains part of the efficiency loss. But this only accentuates the point. If we turn to more outside shooting, there is no data to imply that our efficiency will increase. In fact, it would more likely go down.
3. Who steps up off the bench? It's no secret that our bench has not played a significant role this year, at least in terms of box score categories. Upper classmen Javin and Jack provide intangibles, but most games the bench contributes fewer than five points to the final score. The leading candidate to see increased minutes is Javin DeLaurier. Of all the bench candidates, he has the best combination of experience and talent. He's not the best defensive or offensive player, but he can contribute on both ends of the floor (inefficiently, of course).
4. Alex O'Connell. For Duke to be successful, not only does AOC need to see more minutes (and use them effectively), but he also has to find a proactive role in the offense. Proactive, because he’s not proven to be effective as a corner spot shooter. And, he has an attacker mentality, as we've seen several times. He does not seem to be capable of playing a background role. When he's in the game, he will need to look for his shot and attack the basket, so that teams have to guard him and respect both his shooting and driving.
5. Rebounding. Without Zion, we really see the trade-off effect come into play with rebounding. Offensive rebounding particularly has been an edge for Duke this year. We certainly missed it against Carolina. Statistically, Zion accounts for about 25% of all offensive rebounding, and is probably our best situational rebounder (read: when we need it most). I think this weakness can be offset somewhat by playing a bigger rotation and by RJ continuing to rebound at a higher rate. However, without Zion, Coach K may opt to crash the offensive boards less in order to get back on defense
AGAINST SYRACUSE
Without Zion, our "best 5" isn't as clear. It seems like we will need to commit to a defensive or offensive gameplan, exclusively. Without Zion, we don’t have another two-way player on the team, with an honorable mention to Cam Reddish. But we can't clone him, unfortunately, unless Duke Labs has technology we're all unaware of.
On Offense...
- Shooting: We try to get away with playing smaller with AOC either starting or getting substantial minutes. We trade off perimeter defense for his outside shooting. This may work against Syracuse, but will likely kill us against Virginia Tech, who is likely the best 3 point shooting team in the ACC.
- Run. Run. Run. Syracuse prefers a slower pace, taking opposing offenses deep into the shot clock and forcing contested outside shots. We can still get out in transition, as Tre, RJ, and Cam can all run the floor and score at the basket when we have the advantage on the break.
- Strategy Against the Zone. The best way to beat the 2-3 or 2-1-2 zone is by attacking the middle of it, usually by passing to the high post. Zion was the best player for this spot, and we will need to replace him in that role. Jack White would be the most ideal player for this spot since it allows Bolden to stay on the low post. Javin can’t play at high post because of his passing and decision-making deficiencies.
- Shooting Efficiency. Our achilles heel has been outside shooting. It isn't simply the misses, but also the poor shot selection, at times. Against a good zone, we're going to have to shoot from the outside, but we if live by the outside shot, particularly bad ones, we will most certainly die by the outside shot.
On Defense...
- Size Recognize Size. Syracuse plays a starting five from 6'6" to 6'10," and four of those starters play at least 25 minutes per game. Also, their sixth man, Paschal Chukwu stands 7'2" and plays roughly 20 minutes per game. With Zion, Syracuse's size poses no threat to us, since we play four starters at 6'7" and up. But without Zion, we may need to look for a size advantage on defense. Javin or Jack alongside Bolden offer the best option here. I don't expect Coach K to use the full court press from the Louisville game against Syracuse given the height of their guards, other than a brief change of pace to throw Syracuse off or alter the game tempo. But since Syracuse already prefers a slower game tempo, there is not as much advantage here.
- Steal & Pressure. No, this isn't the latest cocktail collective in downtown Durham (I do love me some Parts & Labor, though.). It's the unique defensive combo that we didn't have at full strength against Cuse the first time out, with Tre leaving the game six minutes in. Tre actually had four steals in those first six minutes, and Duke had Cuse on the ropes early. In the re-match, Tre and Cam putting pressure on the ball and getting into the passing lanes will be the most important storyline of the game for Duke on the defensive end.
- Foul Trouble. Bolden and DeLaurier are both foul-prone. If either player faces foul trouble early, we will essentially be playing two players down from an ideal line-up perspective.
PROJECTION
Duke rebounds emotionally from Wednesday night and comes out with renewed vigor and commitment on defense. Tre and Cam wreak havoc on the Syracuse ball handlers, as Duke wins the turnover battle. Offensively, it's not pretty, but Duke finds a way to get it done. The boys from Durham walk out of the Carrier Dome with the win.
Duke 75, Syracuse 70
LET'S GO DUKE!